iHRIS:Manage Projections (4.0.4)

For other versions, see iHRIS:Manage Projections (versions) .

Click Manage Projections to create and save a new workforce projection or to search for a projection that was previously created. You can also update or continue entering data into any projection that had been saved or generate a workforce projection model to analyze the health workforce.

Add a Cadre

The cadre refers to a category of health workers. The health workforce is made up of several cadres. Specify at least one cadre to represent each type of health worker you want to include in projections.

1. From the home page or left menu, click Administer Database under Configure System.
2. Select Cadre.
3. Either select Add New Cadre or select an existing cadre to edit.
4. Enter the Name of the cadre.
5. Click Confirm and confirm that the information entered is correct. If it is not correct, click Edit to change it. If it is, click Save to save it.

Troubleshooting

An error message appears when Confirm is clicked.

Make certain you have entered a name for the cadre and that it is not the same as a cadre that was already entered. Change the name and try saving again. If you do not want to create the cadre after all, click Return (do not save changes).

Add Projection

The first step is to set up a new workforce projection by clicking the Add Projection option. You will be prompted to enter general information about the projection and save it. Once the projection is generated, additional options for adding workforce data will become available. You can create as many projections as you like. Each projection represents the total health workforce at the national, regional or district level.

1. On the Home page or in the left side menu, click Manage Projections.
2. Click Add Projection.
3. Enter the Projection Name, which will identify the projection in lists.
4. Enter a Category for the projections; projections are grouped by category on the search page.
5. Enter the Targeted Goals for the Workforce; these are the proposed outcomes that you are hoping to achieve by the end date of the projection.
6. Select the Country where the health workforce is being modeled.
7. Select the Start Year for the projection. This should be the most recent year for which there are known data as to the health workforce supply and population. You will not be able to enter any data in the projection for prior to this base year.
8. Enter the Projection Duration in number of years. For best results, enter a number between 10 and 30 years.
9. Click Confirm and confirm that the information entered is correct. If it is not correct, click Edit to change it. If it is, click Save to save it.

The new projection is generated with options to add additional information divided into sections.

Note that you can click the Hide/Expand option at the top of any section to hide or display that section. You can edit or update a projection at any time by searching for the projection (see Find Projection).

Troubleshooting

An error message displays when the Confirm button is clicked.

Make sure all required fields have been completed. Required fields will be outlined in red. Fill in the missing information and try saving again. If you do not want to add a new projection after all, click Return (do not save changes).

The country is not available for selection.

You must add the country to the system before you can select it (see Add a country).

The projection name or other information needs to be changed.

In the Projection Information section under "Edit This Information," click Correct This information to make any changes.

Add Population

The next step in creating a projection is to enter population data for the country or area where you are modeling the workforce.

1. From the projection, click Add Population under the "Projection Information" section.
2. Select the Year for which you are entering the population. Ideally, this is the same year as the start year for the projection. Note that you cannot select a year before the start year for the projection.
3. Enter the current Population (do not use any commas).
4. Enter the Population Growth Rate, the percentage by which the population increases each year.
5. Enter the Source for the population data (this will be helpful if the data need to be verified).
6. Click Confirm and confirm that the information entered is correct. If it is not correct, click Edit to change it. If it is, click Save to save it.

The population data will appear in the projection in the "Population Information" section.

You may update the population during subsequent years by clicking Add New Data beside the population data. The system will maintain a record of all population data entered for each year. To view this record, click View Population History.

Troubleshooting

An error message appears when Confirm is clicked.

Make certain that all of the required data have been entered. All required fields are outlined in red. Fill in the missing information and try saving again. If you do not want to enter the population information after all, click Return (do not save changes).

The population or other information needs to be changed.

In the Population Information section under "Edit This Information," click Correct This information to make any changes.

Add a Cadre Pool

A cadre pool is a pool of health workers in a particular cadre, such as nurses or doctors. You can create a pool for each cadre in the health workforce you are modeling. You will then be able to generate models for each cadre separately or for any of the cadres combined.

1. In the projection under the "Cadre Pools" section, click Add Cadre Pool.
2. Enter a Name to identify the cadre pool.
3. Select the Cadre from the dropdown menu.
4. Click Confirm and confirm that the information entered is correct. If it is not correct, click Edit to change it. If it is, click Save to save it.

Troubleshooting

An error message appears when the Confirm button is clicked.

Make certain that all required fields have been completed. Required fields are outlined in red. Fill in the missing information and try saving again. If you do not want to add a cadre pool after all, click Return (do not save changes).

The cadre is not available for selection.

You must add the cadre to the system before you can select it (see Add a cadre).

The cadre pool name or cadre needs to be changed.

In the projection, under "Cadre Pools," click View/Update This Pool beside the pool you want to change. Then click Correct This information to edit the pool name or select a different cadre.

Add Supply Data

After creating a cadre pool, you will need to add information about the current workforce for that cadre, or the workforce supply.

1. In the projection under the "Cadre Pools" section, click View/Update This Pool.
2. Under the "Cadre Pool Information" section, click Add Supply Data.
3. Select the Year for which you know the number of actual workers in the cadre; ideally, this is the same as the start year for the projection. Note that you cannot select a year for before the start year of the projection.
4. Enter the total Number of Employed Staff in the cadre.
5. Select the Currency and enter the annual Average Salary for a worker in the cadre (do not enter any commas).
6. Enter the Source of the data; this will be helpful if the data need to be verified later.
7. Enter the average Salary Increase per Year for a worker in the cadre, expressed as a percentage of the average annual salary.
8. Click Confirm and confirm that the information entered is correct. If it is not correct, click Edit to change it. If it is, click Save to save it.

You may update the workforce supply during subsequent years by clicking Add New Data beside the supply data. The system will maintain a record of all supply data entered for each year. To view this record, click View Supply History.

Troubleshooting

An error message appears when the Confirm button is clicked.

Make certain that all required fields have been completed. Required fields are outlined in red. Fill in the missing information and try saving again. If you do not want to add the supply after all, click Return (do not save changes).

The currency is not available for selection.

You must add the currency to the system before you can select it (see Add a currency).

The population or other information needs to be changed.

In the Pool Supply section under "Edit This Information," click Correct This information to make any changes.

Add Target Data

The next step is to enter the number of positions in that cadre that you need, or the workforce target.

1. In the projection under the "Cadre Pools" section, click View/Update This Pool.
2. Under the "Cadre Pool Information" section, click Add Target Data.
3. Select the Year for which you know the number of positions needed in the cadre; ideally, this is the same as the start year for the projection. Note that you cannot select a year for before the start year of the projection.
4. Enter the Targeted Number of Positions in the cadre or enter the Targeted Ratio of Positions, the number of population that 1 health worker should serve (such as 1000 if the health worker-to-population ratio is 1:1000).
5. Enter the Source of the data; this will be helpful if the data need to be verified later.
6. Click Confirm and confirm that the information entered is correct. If it is not correct, click Edit to change it. If it is, click Save to save it.

You may update the workforce target during subsequent years by clicking Update this Information beside the target data. The system will maintain a record of all target data entered for each year. To view this record, click View Target History.

Troubleshooting

An error message appears when the Confirm button is clicked.

Make certain that all required fields have been completed. Required fields are outlined in red. Fill in the missing information and try saving again. Also make sure that you have not entered both a targeted number and a targeted ratio of positions. You cannot enter both. If you do not want to add the supply after all, click Return (do not save changes).

Add Pool Change

A pool change calculates a year-by-year decrease or increase in the number of health workers in the cadre. Decreases may be caused by attrition due to retirement, illness, death, out migration or other reasons. Increases may come from training program graduates, immigration or recruitment of health workers. You can enter as many pool changes as you like depending on the data that you have available. Each one will be considered in projecting the total workforce supply. It is best to enter each intake and attrition change separately, as they can be toggled on and off when modeling the projected health workforce. This will help you more easily see the effects of each change on the workforce supply.

1. In the projection under the "Cadre Pools" section, click View/Update This Pool.
2. Under the Pool Changes section, click Add Pool Change.
3. Enter a Name to identify the pool change (such as "Retirement" or "Training Graduates").
4. Enter a longer Description of the pool change, if desired. This should include any assumptions you have made in determining the amount of change.
5. From the Enabled? menu, select Yes to enable the pool change and show its effects when projecting the health workforce. Select No to disable the change and hide it when modeling projections.
6. Select whether the change is an Intake (increase) or Exit (decrease).
7. Enter the Source for the data; this will be helpful if the data need to be verified later.
8. Enter either the Amount of Change, the number of workers entering or leaving the cadre, or the Rate (%) of Change, the percentage of decrease or increase in workers. (See notes below.)
9. If you like, enter a Maximum Amount of Change. This caps the rate of change so that it cannot grow beyond the maximum amount.
10. If you have costs associated with the change, select the Currency and enter the Average Cost per worker. For example, you may enter scholarship costs for training students, recruitment bonuses or severance paid to laid-off workers. You may also choose to enter a Cost Increase (%) Per Year if the costs go up by a known percentage each year.
11. Select the Initial Year of the change, the year in the projection when the changes will start. The initial year may not be the same as the start year for the projection, if the change requires some intervention that will take time, such as completing a pre-service training program. If an initial year is not chosen, the change begins with the first year of the projection.
12. Enter the Duration in Years of Change, the number of years in the projection that the change should take effect. Leave this field blank if the change affects every year in the projection.
13. Click Confirm and confirm that the information entered is correct. If it is not correct, click Edit to change it. If it is, click Save to save it.

Notes:

You can enter either the Amount of Change or the Rate of Change. If you enter an amount, the projected workforce will increase or decrease by that number each year in the projection. You may also choose to enter a Rate (%) Amount of Change Increases Each Year; this will increase the number of workers by that amount each year. If you enter a rate of change alone, the projected workforce will increase or decrease by that percentage of the current supply each year.

For example, if you enter an intake Amount of Change of 100, the number of workers will increase by 100 health workers each year.

If you enter an intake Amount of Change of 100 and a Rate Amount of Change Increases of 10%, then the number of workers added to the cadre will increase by 10% each year. 100 workers would be added the first year, 110 would be added the second year and so on.

If you enter an intake Rate of Change of 10%, the number of workers will increase by 10% each year. If there are 100 workers in the first year, 10 will be added the second year to equal 110 workers, and 11 will be added in the third year (10% of 110), and so on.

Troubleshooting

An error message displays when the Confirm button is clicked.

Make sure that all of the required fields have been completed. The required fields are outlined in red. Fill in the missing information and try saving again. If you do not want to add a special payment after all, click Return (do not save changes).

The currency is not available for selection.

You must add the currency to the system before you can select it (see Add a currency).

The pool change needs to be changed, disabled or enabled.

In the projection under "Pool Changes," click Correct This information beside the pool change to change any field. Select No from the Enabled? menu to disable the pool change or select Yes to re-enable it.

Model Projection

Once you have created a projection with one or several cadres, you can generate a graphical model of the projection. The model graphs the changes in the actual health workforce as compared to the changes in needed health workers to serve the population over the duration of the projection. The actual workforce is calculated based on the pool changes you entered applied to the supply. The needed number of health workers is calculated based on a ratio of health workers to population, calculated from the initial target and population you set. The annual salary and other costs are graphed separately.

1. With the projection open, click Model Projections in the navigational menu on the left side of the screen.
2. A list of all cadre pools created for the projection is displayed. Select the cadres to model. (Select more than one cadre by holding down the CTRL key while clicking each cadre's name.) You can also click Model Projections beside the name of any cadre pool in the projection. This will create a model just for that cadre.
3. Click the View button to display the projection.

The projected health workforce supply and needs are displayed. The needs graph is red, and the supply graph is blue. Over time, you can clearly see how close the projected supply will be to meeting the projected needs, based on the pool changes you entered. The annual costs display just beneath the projected workforce.

Note that if you enter supply and target data for subsequent years, the actual and required number of health workers will be graphed separately for each year on the projection. This allows you to compare one year to the next.

Below the graph, all of the projection and costs data are displayed in a table. Note that actual data you entered (as opposed to projected numbers) are indicated by an asterisk (*).

You can disable any of the pool changes to see the effect on the projection by clicking the checkbox next to the pool change data in the tabular display. Then click the Update button to redraw the graph. You will see the changed workforce supply graphed in blue, while the original supply remains as a green line for easier comparison.

Find Projection

After creating a projection, it will be saved for future updating and modeling.

1. From the Home page or left menu, click Manage Projections.
2. Click Find Projections.
3. Enter the Projection Name and select the Country to search for.
4. Click Find to find the matching projection or click Find All to find all projections.
5. A list of matching projection displays grouped by category. Click the name of the projection you want to review.

Troubleshooting

The record is not found.

The system displays an error message. Click Return to return to the Search Records page and search again.

Copy a Projection

If you want to create a new projection based on a projection that has already been entered, you can copy the original projection. This copies all of the population and cadre pool data, which you can then change in the copied projection without affecting the original. Copying a projection will save a lot of time on data entry if you plan to reuse cadre pools or pool changes in the new projection.

1. From the Home page or left menu, click Manage Projections.
2. Click Find Projections.
3. Enter the Projection Name that you want to copy.
4. Click Find to find the matching projection.
5. Click the name of the projection you want to copy.
6. The projection opens. Click Copy Projection to copy all the data.
7. Change the data as you like.